Field reads on commodity markets, forecasting methodology and procurement playbooks — written by the team that builds the models. New issue every week.
Front-month ICE US cocoa printed $4,189/MT today. Exchange stocks sit at a 20-month high. By the textbook, that combination should weigh on the front of the curve — and it isn't. We unpack why our ensemble is staying bullish, which four risk drivers the market hasn't priced in yet, and how procurement should be hedging into the next three months.
Read the full piece →NWE crackers held below 78% utilization for nine straight weeks. We unpack what the naphtha spread, downstream PE demand and Q3 maintenance schedule mean for the curve.
MembersLME on-warrant stocks have drawn 38% YTD while the new Section 232 review hangs over Q3. The tariff path is binary; the stock signal is not.
MembersCONAB’s revised cane forecast and the Indian export quota signal are pulling the curve in opposite directions. Three scenarios for the next 60 days.
MembersThe premium for Cape-routing has compressed to $640/FEU but vol is rising. Contract-trigger thresholds for Q3 freight buyers across three lane mixes.
MembersTwo structural moves in opposite directions. The blend ratios that survive both and the contract clauses that don’t.
MembersWhy average-CRPS is the wrong ranking criterion for procurement-relevant forecasts, and the tail-weighted variant we use to qualify a model into the ensemble.
MembersA field-tested agenda for a weekly fixing call that produces a defended, recorded decision. Roles, the artifact, the failure modes.
MembersBook a 30-minute working session with the founding team — or start a 30-day trial today, no contract required.
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